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Bitcoin It is currently facing resistance around $60,000 and despite the earlier predictions of some crypto experts, it looks increasingly likely. The top cryptocurrency is unlikely to reach $100,000 by the end of 2024.
The slowdown has also weighed on the broader cryptocurrency market, which has struggled to achieve significant growth over the past few months. A number of factors are contributing to the stalling of Bitcoin’s movement, but the main reason is its increasing correlation with macroeconomic conditions. As Bitcoin matures, it is more exposed to the effects of global market dynamics and economic factors, which now play a greater role in shaping its trajectory than ever before.
Bitcoin is back in 2024
Bitcoin in 2024 after suffering a major comeback The prolongation of the crypto winter brought about by the collapse of FTX. It’s called a big technical event “cut in half” And it is increasingly being accepted by the mainstream. Seek approval View Bitcoin ETFs From the SEC, the leading digital currency In March, it reached $73,737.
Adam Beck, a prominent figure in the world of digital currencies And said one of the first cypherpunks who helped create the ideological foundation of Bitcoin Bitcoin’s climb to $100,000 is long overdue And it should happen soon
However, it is unlikely that the leading digital currency will reach or even approach the $100,000 mark in 2024.
Cryptography expert Noel Acheson He believes that Bitcoin can cross the $100,000 mark – it won’t happen this year. In an email to Quartz, he told Quartz that if the political uncertainty resolves favorably — for example, if former US President Donald Trump wins in November or if Vice President Kamala Harris expresses support for cryptocurrency development — it’s certainly possible. There is, especially given the possibility of a cycle of interest rate cuts
“I’m not saying that will be to happen [this year]It’s just that it’s not an outrageous prediction.”
Jag Conner, Head of Derivatives at Bitfinex cryptocurrency exchange Leoechoed Acheson’s statement, saying that based on historical patterns and expectations created by events like the halving, Bitcoin could reach $100,000.
“However, these forecasts often do not take into account unexpected macroeconomic changes, market maturity and changes in investor behavior,” he said in an email.
Blame Halving for Bitcoin Resistance?
after Bitcoin halving In April, which reduced the mining reward from 6.25 to 3.125 bitcoins, the leading cryptocurrency did not experience the significant price increase seen in previous halvings.
Acheson noted that halving events often lead to a temporary drop in Bitcoin’s price in the following months, so the current slowdown is not unexpected. However, this year presents a unique set of conditions.
“It’s weaker this year than other periods, but that’s probably due to political factors and the AI frenzy,” he added.
Conner attributed the complexity of the current market to various factors, including institutional investment patterns, regulatory developments, and macroeconomic conditions affecting Bitcoin’s price performance.
“There’s always a ‘buffer period’ after the halving that usually happens,” he added.
“While there has been some fluctuation in the aftermath immediately after the halving, this period may represent a re-accumulation phase after the halving, which has been seen in previous cycles.”
What is the Bitcoin price prediction in 2024?
Acheson refrained from predicting the price of Bitcoin in 2024 but highlighted an interesting historical pattern. He noted that between the end of August and December 2020, after the previous halving, the price of Bitcoin increased by 270%. In the same time frame, he said, Bitcoin only needs to rise 70% to reach $100,000 by the end of this year.
Conner sees the $63,000-$65,000 range as critical to Bitcoin market dynamics. He sees Bitcoin’s ability to hold its price above or below this level as a key indicator of market strength, as it reflects the cost basis for short-term holders and ETF buyers.
We also expect traditional financial risk reductions and news selling events to push prices lower after the real rate cut in September. However, as long as the stock holds up well into Q4 2024, we expect the consolidation period to be over by then.